IATA: Air Cargo demand decline slows in April

In terms of cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), global demand decreased globally by 6.6% from April 2022 (-7.0% for international operations). Compared to the previous month’s performance (-7.6%), this decline was better.

In terms of available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), capacity increased 13.4% from April 2022. The capacity surpassed pre-COVID levels for the first time in three years, and it was also up 3.2% from April 2019 to that month. As passenger demand increases, belly capacity is primarily responsible for the sharp increase. After correction, freighter capacity fell by 2.3%. Operations for Preighter ended in March after 2.5 years of nonstop operation.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a leading indication of freight demand, showed an improvement in April in its component measuring new export orders globally. The world’s largest export economy’s PMI index breached the crucial 50 threshold, signaling rising demand for manufactured products.

March was the first annual growth in global goods trade since November 2022, at 0.2%.

Increases in both consumer and producer prices have abated. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rates for the month of April were 5.0% in the US, 0.3% in China, and 3.5% in Japan. Europe (minus the UK) had a higher rate (8.1%), but it is still significantly below its peak of 11.5% in October 2022.

“The air cargo industry is adjusting itself to the implications of the recovery in passenger demand that brings with it an expansion of belly capacity. Preighter operations stopped in March and freighter services were scaled back by 2.3% in April. The demand environment is challenging to read. Tapering inflation is definitely a positive. But the degree and speed at which that could lead to looser monetary policies that might stimulate demand is unclear. The resilience that got the air cargo industry through the COVID-19 crisis is also critical in the aftermath,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

In comparison to the same month in 2022, Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 0.4% decline in air cargo volumes in April 2023. Compared to March (-6.8%), this result was noticeably better. As more belly capacity from the passenger side of the business came online, the region’s available capacity grew by 41.2% compared to April 2022.

April 2023 saw a 6.8% yearly decline in freight shipments for Middle Eastern carriers. Comparing this performance to the previous month (-5.5%), there was a very modest decline. Comparative to April 2022, capacity grew 10.0%.

Only African carriers performed well in April, with a 0.9% increase in demand over April 2022. Compared to the prior month’s performance (-4.3%), this was an improvement. Notably, cargo demand on the Africa to Asia trade route increased significantly in April, rising 20.0% year over year. The capacity was 5.3% higher than in April 2022.