Middle East commercial airline fleet to grow over the next decade

Dubai: The Middle East fleet of commercial airliners is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% over the next decade, according to the Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast, 2025-2035 report from Oliver Wyman, a global management consulting firm and business unit within Marsh McLennan.

This is almost double the 2.8% annual growth rate anticipated for the fleet worldwide over the same 10 years, reflecting the region’s rising demand for air travel. 

The Middle East’s share of the global fleet is also expected to increase from 5.3% to 6.7% by 2035, as its fleet expands to close to 2,600 of the world’s more than 38,000 aircraft by 2035. 

Reflecting the increase in aircraft, the spending on maintenance, repair, and overhaul in the region will also trend upward, topping US$20 billion in 2035. The MRO spend in 2025 is expected to reach $16 billion.

“The Middle East commercial aviation market is on a growth trajectory, supported by strong demand for air travel, from both full-service airlines and low-cost carriers entering the market,” said André Martins, Oliver Wyman’s Head of the Transportation, Services, and Operations Practices for India, the Middle East, and Africa. 

“As the report highlights, the region’s fleet expansion will be driven primarily by the addition of narrowbodies that will cater to the growth in domestic and shorter-haul flights. In a region where widebodies have long dominated, narrowbodies will climb from 43% to 47% of the regional fleet over the decade.

“There is a significant opportunity for different countries in the Middle East to capture the large market potential across the entire value chain, while simultaneously enhancing the productivity and efficiency of operations. It will be imperative that there is close collaboration across the entire sector and strong investment in the expansion of local capabilities, including MRO services. By leveraging global insights and best practices, the aviation sector can adapt their strategies to address local challenges while driving substantial improvements,” he added.